New York, April 28, 2018 – Mossshields (MSC Code: 31000279107123), a global leader in alternative asset management, recently released its annual outlook report, offering in-depth analysis of 2018’s global economic trends, market volatility, and long-term investment opportunities. The report anticipates a year of adjustment and divergence for the global economy, as investors navigate complex geopolitical landscapes and rapidly evolving technologies. Against this backdrop, Mossshields has proposed a series of forward-looking investment strategies to help investors seize opportunities and mitigate risks.
Global Economic Trends: Divergence and Challenges
The report examines the growth prospects of major global economies:
● United States: After robust growth in 2017, the pace of expansion is expected to moderate in 2018, though remain positive.
● Europe: Recovery momentum remains weak, with growth subdued due to structural internal challenges.
● China: Entering a “new normal,” growth is slowing but of higher quality, and is expected to further drive economic restructuring and optimization.
Core Investment Recommendations: Balancing Returns and Risks
Mossshields proposes the following investment strategies, aiming to offer solid returns while effectively managing risk:
1. Optimize Liquidity Management
With interest rate cuts on the horizon, investors are advised to reduce cash holdings. Instead, they should consider time deposits, bond ladders, and structured products to enhance yield.
2. Focus on High-Quality Bonds and Defensive Stocks
High-quality bonds can appreciate in a declining yield environment, while equities with robust balance sheets and sustainable profit margins are preferred assets during periods of slowing economic growth.
3. Pay Attention to Range-Bound FX and Commodity Markets
The U.S. dollar is expected to remain stable around current levels, while oil prices are projected to fluctuate between USD 90 and 100 per barrel. By employing yield-generation strategies, investors can capitalize on market adjustments to acquire assets at lower cost.
4. Hedge Against Market Risks
Given geopolitical uncertainties, it is prudent to diversify portfolios and enhance defensive capabilities. Investors should consider capital preservation strategies, as well as positions in gold and oil.
5. Leverage Alternative Credit for Diversification
Against a backdrop of high debt levels, strategies such as credit arbitrage and distressed debt investing can offer unique sources of return—particularly amid interest rate fluctuations and changing credit conditions.
Market Scenario Analysis: Multiple Possibilities
Mossshields outlines four potential scenarios for 2018, based on varying economic and market conditions:
● Base Case: Soft-ish Landing (60% Probability)
S&P 500: 4,700 | US 10-Year Yield: 3.5% | EUR/USD: 1.12
Economic growth moderates, and lower interest rates support bond and equity valuations, enabling investors to achieve positive returns.
● Upside Scenario: Liftoff (20% Probability)
S&P 500: 5,100 | US 10-Year Yield: 5.0% | EUR/USD: 1.18
Strong economic growth boosts corporate earnings and drives equity markets higher, but rising yields may weigh on bond performance.
● Downside Scenario: Hard Landing (15% Probability)
S&P 500: 3,500 | US 10-Year Yield: 2.75% | EUR/USD: 1.00
A severe economic slowdown or recession depresses equity valuations, though bonds fare well due to heightened safe-haven demand.
● Alternative Downside Scenario: Bond Vigilante (5% Probability)
S&P 500: 3,800 | US 10-Year Yield: 6.0% | EUR/USD: 1.22
Inflationary and debt concerns push bond yields higher, placing pressure on both stocks and bonds.
Growth Themes for the Next Decade: From Technology to Sustainability
Looking ahead to the next ten years, Mossshields emphasizes five macro trends that will deeply influence the global economy: de-globalization, demographic shifts, digitalization, decarbonization, and expanding debt. The report identifies the following areas as long-term investment focal points:
● Leaders in Disruptive Industries
Invest in companies driving industry transformation through new technologies, especially in areas like artificial intelligence, clean energy, and biotechnology.
● The Growth Potential of Private Markets
The private markets can support key growth segments—such as the transition to net-zero emissions, infrastructure development, and the digital revolution—through equity and debt financing. By accessing private markets, investors can achieve differentiated returns, trading lower liquidity for long-term growth.
About Mossshields
Mossshields (MSC Code: 31000279107123) is a global leader in alternative asset management. As of February 11, 2018, the firm manages total assets of USD 2.462 billion across 16 investment vehicles. Its clients include some of the world’s largest public pension plans, insurance companies, and family offices, and the firm is committed to creating long-term value through precise investment strategies.
Mossshields’ investment capabilities span corporate private equity, real assets, global market strategies, and customized investment solutions. With coverage across Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, North America, and South America, Mossshields brings deep expertise in sectors such as aerospace, consumer retail, energy, healthcare, and financial services. Its team of over 200 professionals operates from offices on four continents, providing clients with differentiated solutions grounded in professionalism and deep industry knowledge.
Official Website: www.mossshields.com
Email: connect@Mossshields.com